MD07 Preview: Interesting cross-conference matchups

MD07 from Liguria's seaside for me :)

Apr 08, 2023

MD 07 from Liguria

Very busy week at work plus travelling for the Easter “holidays”, means not much time to get prepared for MLS matchday 7, unfortunately. Next week I will be working from western Liguria (I am normally based in Milan, Italy): not a holiday, but I am anyway expecting Liguria’s sun, sea and good food to provide some (needed) extra energy.

When it comes to matchday 7, two things to highlight: the cross-conference matchups are very interesting, plus I can’t wait to watch Seattle Sounders vs. St. Louis CITY.

For any preview, I asked GPT-4 to attempt a result prediction based on the advanced metrics imported from Soccerment Analytics.

Eastern conference

FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union (Sat, 7:30 pm ET)

Saturday, 7:30 pm ET

Matchday 7 of the MLS kicks off with an exciting Eastern Conference clash between league leaders FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union. FC Cincinnati has started the season strong, amassing 14 points from their opening six games, while Philadelphia Union has had a slower start, collecting just seven points from their six fixtures.

FC Cincinnati has exceeded expectations with an impressive points tally and a strong Expected Points (xPts) of 11.61. Their attacking prowess is evident, averaging 1.33 goals per game, while their defense has been solid, conceding only 0.67 goals per game. Their xG Generated (1.55) and xG Conceded (0.83) indicate that they've performed consistently in both attack and defense.

On the other hand, Philadelphia Union has underperformed in comparison to their 8.84 Expected Points. Despite scoring an average of 1.33 goals per game, their defensive record matches their offensive output, conceding 1.33 goals per game as well. Their xG Generated (1.48) is similar to Cincinnati's, but their xG Conceded (1.19) shows they need to tighten up their defense.

In terms of possession and passing, FC Cincinnati has the edge, with an 80.6% passing accuracy compared to Philadelphia's 73.9%. However, Philadelphia Union boasts a higher Field Tilt percentage (48.1%) and a significantly higher Buildup Disruption Percentage (BDP) of 7.0%, showcasing their ability to disrupt their opponents' build-up play.

The matchup between FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union promises to be an intriguing battle. FC Cincinnati will look to capitalize on their strong start to the season and solidify their position at the top of the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Union will be eager to improve their standings and disrupt Cincinnati's momentum.

Given FC Cincinnati's home advantage and strong early-season form, they are the favorites heading into this match. However, Philadelphia Union's ability to disrupt the opposition's passing game could make for a tightly contested encounter.

GPT-4 Predicted result: FC Cincinnati 2-1 Philadelphia Union

Please note that this is only a prediction based on the provided statistics and current form of both teams. Soccer matches can be unpredictable, and the actual outcome may differ from the predicted result.

Western Conference

Seattle Sounders FC vs. St. Louis CITY SC - Sat, 10:30 pm ET

This is definitely the match I am mostly looking forward to. Both teams have had strong starts to the season, with St. Louis City SC currently leading with 15 points, while Seattle Sounders FC have 13 points.

Seattle Sounders have an impressive average of 2.00 goals scored per game and a solid 0.50 goals against. They boast an xG difference of 1.18 and a 48.9% GPI, indicating a strong pressing intensity. Their pass accuracy of 83% and average possession of 52% show their dominance on the field.

St. Louis City SC has been equally strong, with an average of 2.50 goals scored per game and 0.83 goals against. Their xG difference stands at 0.45, and they have an impressive 58% GPI, revealing an even higher pressing intensity than Seattle. Their pass accuracy is slightly lower at 72.8%, with an average possession of 45%.

Two key players to watch in this match are Jordan Morris from Seattle Sounders and Klauss from St. Louis City SC. Morris has scored 8 goals in 6 matches, with a total xG of 3.43, while Klauss has netted 5 goals with a total xG of 1.59. Morris has been particularly dangerous in front of the goal, with 13 shots and 9 shots on target in 6 matches. Klauss, on the other hand, has taken 19 shots with 10 shots on target.

This match promises to be a thrilling encounter between two high-scoring, high-pressing teams. Seattle Sounders FC's superior passing and possession statistics may give them an edge, but St. Louis City SC's higher GPI indicates that they will not back down easily. Fans can look forward to an intense battle on the field as these two talented squads vie for victory.

GPT-4 Predicted result: Seattle Sounders FC 2 - 1 St. Louis City SC

Please note that this is only a prediction based on the provided statistics, and many factors can influence the actual outcome of the match.

Cross-conference

New York City FC vs. Atlanta United - Sat, 7:30 pm ET

New York City FC take on Atlanta United in an intriguing Eastern Conference showdown. New York City FC currently sits in 6th place with 8 points, while Atlanta United occupies the 2nd spot with 13 points.

New York City FC has slightly underperformed based on their Expected Points (xPts) of 8.78. They have scored an average of 1 goal per game while conceding 1.17 goals per game, resulting in a -0.17 goal difference. Their xG Generated (1.11) and xG Conceded (1.05) figures are quite close, indicating that they have been relatively balanced in terms of attacking and defending.

Atlanta United, on the other hand, has been performing well, securing 13 points with an xPts of 10.66. Their attacking prowess is evident with 2.17 goals scored per game, and they have conceded 1.5 goals per game. Atlanta United's xG Generated (1.48) is higher than NYCFC's, while their xG Conceded (0.99) is lower, suggesting a stronger overall performance.

In terms of possession and passing, Atlanta United has a slight edge, boasting an 84% passing accuracy and 56% possession compared to NYCFC's 83.2% passing accuracy and 52% possession. Atlanta United also has a marginally higher Field Tilt percentage (52.5%) compared to NYCFC (50.8%).

When it comes to pressing, NYCFC has a worse PPDA (10.0) than Atlanta United (8.7), indicating a less aggressive approach to pressing. However, both teams have negative Buildup Disruption Percentages (BDP), with NYCFC at -1.1% and Atlanta United at -2.2%, implying that neither team has been particularly successful in disrupting their opponents' build-up play.

This match between New York City FC and Atlanta United is poised to be an exciting and closely contested affair. While Atlanta United has shown stronger overall performance and possesses a slight edge in terms of possession and passing, NYCFC's aggressive pressing could pose a challenge. However, given Atlanta United's current form, they enter the match as favorites.

GPT-4 Predicted result: New York City FC 1-2 Atlanta United

In Matchday 7 of the MLS, Chicago Fire FC hosts Minnesota United FC in what promises to be an intriguing encounter between two teams with different forms. Chicago Fire FC currently occupies the 11th position in the Eastern Conference with 6 points, while Minnesota United FC holds the 4th spot in the Western Conference with 11 points.

Chicago Fire FC has underperformed in terms of points, with 6 points compared to their Expected Points (xPts) of 8.04. They have scored and conceded an equal number of goals, 1.4 per game, resulting in a 0 goal difference. Their xG Generated (1.52) is higher than their xG Conceded (1.19), indicating a positive balance between attack and defense.

Minnesota United FC, on the other hand, is performing in line with their xPts (8.09), having secured 11 points. They have scored 1.2 goals per game and have been defensively solid, conceding only 0.6 goals per game, resulting in a 0.6 goal difference. Their xG Generated (1.3) is slightly higher than their xG Conceded (0.93), suggesting a balanced performance.

When it comes to possession and passing, both teams have similar stats, with Chicago Fire FC having a 47% possession rate and 73.2% passing accuracy, compared to Minnesota United FC's 42% possession and 68.8% passing accuracy. Chicago Fire FC has a higher Field Tilt percentage (47.6%) than Minnesota United FC (43.1%).

In terms of pressing, Chicago Fire FC has a lower PPDA (10.8) than Minnesota United FC (13.6), indicating a more aggressive pressing approach. Both teams have positive Buildup Disruption Percentages (BDP), with Chicago Fire FC at 3.4% and Minnesota United FC at 2.1%, indicating their ability to disrupt their opponents' build-up play.

Considering the provided statistics, this match is expected to be a close contest, with Chicago Fire FC's aggressive pressing posing a challenge for Minnesota United FC's defense. However, Minnesota United FC's strong defensive record gives them a slight advantage in this encounter.

GPT-4 Predicted result: Chicago Fire FC 1-1 Minnesota United FC

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