Back to Milan and ready for El Tráfico
Yes, I started writing this week’s preview while still in Liguria, looking at the Mediterranean Sea in a very sunny Spring day.
Now back to Milan, looking forward to MLS Matchday 08. Here, the four matches I am planning to watch:
Toronto FC - Atlanta United
St. Louis CITY SC - FC Cincinnati
Austin FC - Vancouver Whitecaps FC
LA Galaxy - LAFC
This week I am asking GPT-4 to provide sensible xG ranges for these four matches, taking into consideration an average home field advantage of 0.447 (see the table below, but bear in mind this is still WIP). We’ll see how GPT-4 fares with the predictions this weekend.
Eastern Conference Matches
This week I am planning to watch only one match in the East: Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United. I am going for this one for a very simple reason: I would love to watch the creativity of Federico Bernardeschi and Thiago Almada one against the other.
Toronto FC - Atlanta United
Toronto FC, having played seven matches so far, has accumulated eight points with an Expected Points tally of 9.20. Their season has been a mixed bag, with inconsistent performances leading to a relatively low average of 1.14 points per game. The team has scored an average of 1.14 goals per match and conceded 1.00, resulting in a goal difference of 0.14. In terms of open-play xG, Toronto FC has generated 0.68, while conceding 0.86, which indicates a slight defensive vulnerability. Toronto’s offensive prowess has certainly been limited by the absence of Lorenzo Insigne (groin injury), who seems still quite fare from coming back to the pitch.
On the other hand, Atlanta United has had a stronger start to the season, securing 14 points from seven matches, with an Expected Points tally of 12.36. The team has scored 2.00 goals per game, conceding 1.43. This has led to a positive goal difference of 0.57. In open-play, Atlanta United has generated an xG of 1.05 and conceded 0.85, suggesting a more balanced outcome.
Atlanta United has a slightly better passing and possession game, averaging 471.4 passes per game with an 84.2% pass accuracy and 55.0% possession. These numbers do not seem at risk, considering Toronto’s PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) of 15.1, while Atlanta United's is 8.9, which indicates that the latter is likely to press higher up the pitch to disrupt their opponents' build-up play.
GPT-4 generated xG predictions:
Toronto FC: 0.92 - 1.92 vs. Atlanta United: 0.85 - 1.85
Cross-Conference Matches
St. Louis CITY SC - FC Cincinnati
First ranked in the East to play against second ranked in the West. Indeed, both teams have had a strong start to the season, with St. Louis earning 15 points from 7 matches and FC Cincinnati slightly ahead with 17 points from the same number of games.
St. Louis CITY SC has been somewhat overperforming their Expected Points (xPoints) of 10.68, while FC Cincinnati has been more in line with their xPoints of 13.82. On average, St. Louis has scored 2.14 goals per game and conceded 1.14, while FC Cincinnati has scored 1.29 and conceded only 0.57. In terms of Expected Goals (xG), St. Louis has generated 1.51 xG per game and conceded 1.30 xG, while FC Cincinnati has generated 1.30 xG and conceded 0.81 xG.
Despite St. Louis's stronger overall goal difference, FC Cincinnati has a better xG difference of 0.50 compared to St. Louis's 0.21. This indicates that Cincinnati may have been more efficient in creating and preventing scoring opportunities.
St. Louis applies more pressure on their opponents, as indicated by their lower PPDA (passes per defensive action) of 8.6, while Cincinnati's PPDA is 11.4. This could be a critical factor in disrupting Cincinnati's play.
Both teams have different strengths and weaknesses, but given the numbers, this matchup promises to be a closely contested game. St. Louis will likely look to capitalize on their aggressive pressing and goal-scoring abilities, while FC Cincinnati will rely on their strong defensive record and possession play to dictate the game's tempo. However, the absence of Luciano Acosta will surely be felt: he’s one of the top creators in the league.
GPT-4 generated xG predictions:
St. Louis CITY SC: 1.51 - 2.51 vs. FC Cincinnati: 0.81 - 1.81
Western Conference Matches
If El Tràfico is going to be my top priority this weekend, I am also intrigued by Austin FC - Vancouver Whitecaps FC, given their very different comparisons vs. last season.
Austin FC - Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Considering the number of grey&bolded cells above, Vancouver Whitecaps FC should be considered the clear favourites in this clash. However, the match will be held at Austin FC's home ground, the Q2 Stadium, giving the hosts an advantage in terms of familiarity and support from their fans. And, as seen above, home field advantage is huge in the MLS. That’s why GPT-4 (see below) gives home advantage a huge importance when doing the prediction.
Austin FC has had a mixed start to the season, with their form being rather inconsistent. The team has showcased a solid attack, creating multiple goal-scoring opportunities, but has struggled to consistently find the back of the net. Their defense has also been a concern, as they've been prone to conceding goals at crucial moments. Austin FC will need to tighten up at the back and convert their chances more efficiently if they are to come away with three points in this encounter.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC, on the other hand, has enjoyed a more stable beginning to their campaign. The team has built its success on a strong defensive foundation, making it difficult for opponents to break through their backline. Their attack, however, has been less potent, and they'll need to find ways to create and capitalize on goal-scoring opportunities if they are to outscore Austin FC.
The two teams show interesting dynamics if we compare xG generated and conceded vs. the previous season. Massive improvement on both attacking and defence for the Whitecaps, while Austin has shown some stability in defence and quite a big decrease in their offensive output.
Another aspect I find interesting is Vancouver’s associative attacking style. They are the MLS team completing the highest amount of one-twos. At Soccerment we consider one-twos as a combination between two players where the first player (who opens the one-two) exchanges the ball with a teammate (who closes the one-two) while gaining ground with off-ball movement in between the two passes. The key element that distinguishes this action from other ways to progress the ball up the pitch is that it requires a higher level of coordination between the two players, and a better capacity to read and react to each other’s intentions and movements.
GPT-4 generated xG predictions:
Austin FC: 1.10 - 2.10 vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: 0.80 - 1.80
LA Galaxy vs. LAFC
In an upcoming match, LA Galaxy will face off against Los Angeles Football Club (LAFC) in what promises to be an exciting clash. Both teams have played six matches so far this season, but their performances have been markedly different. LA Galaxy has struggled, earning only three points with an expected points tally of 7.71, while LAFC has been in excellent form, accumulating 14 points with 11.95 expected points.
LA Galaxy has experienced difficulty in scoring, averaging just 0.50 goals per game compared to LAFC's 2.00 goals per game. Furthermore, LA Galaxy has a goal difference of -1.00, whereas LAFC boasts an impressive goal difference of 1.50. The xG stats further highlight this disparity, with LA Galaxy's xG generated at 1.47 and xG conceded at 1.38, leaving them with a meager xG difference of 0.09. In contrast, LAFC has an xG generated of 1.86 and xG conceded of 0.89, resulting in a solid xG difference of 0.97.
In terms of possession and passing, LA Galaxy has a higher average of total passes (570.2) and pass accuracy (88.5%) compared to LAFC's 434.8 total passes and 81.1% pass accuracy. However, LAFC has a slightly better field tilt percentage at 56.3% against LA Galaxy's 53.6%. LAFC also has a more aggressive pressing strategy with a lower PPDA (10.7) than LA Galaxy (12.6).
Given these advanced metrics, LAFC appears to have the upper hand in this match-up. LA Galaxy will need to improve its offensive capabilities and tighten its defense to challenge the in-form LAFC. This highly anticipated game could be a turning point for both teams, and fans will undoubtedly be eager to see how it unfolds.
Most expected player? Certainly Denis Bouanga, which I indicated as one of my favourite MVP candidates here considered his creativity. While in the following chart what is highlighted is his attacking output, which is quite impressive too.
GPT-4 generated xG predictions:
LA Galaxy: 1.47 - 2.47 vs. LAFC: 1.43 - 2.43