xPower Rankings ahead of MD10
The xPower Ranking table, utilizing Soccerment's Expected Points model, offers valuable insights into the teams' underlying performances. In my opinion, this analysis enables us to form a more comprehensive understanding of potential scenarios moving forward.
https://twitter.com/aldocomi/status/1652286427135197185?s=20
Eastern Conference
In the Eastern Conference, ahead of matchday 10, the table presents an interesting scenario. The New England Revolution and FC Cincinnati are neck and neck, sharing the top position with 20 points each, while Atlanta United sits just two points behind them at 18 points. The rest of the pack has a more substantial gap from the top three, with New York City FC in fourth place at 15 points.
The Expected Points (xPts) reveal that New England Revolution has overperformed by 5.5 points (20 points - 14.5 xPts), while FC Cincinnati has overperformed by a slightly smaller margin of 3.5 points (20 points - 16.5 xPts). At the opposite end, New York Red Bulls have underperformed, with 8 points against their 13.7 xPts.
Offensively, Atlanta United boasts the highest number of goals scored (G) at 18, followed closely by Columbus Crew with 18. However, looking at Expected Goals (xG), both teams underperform, with 11.9 and 12.6 xG, respectively. On the other hand, Philadelphia Union has an impressive xG of 14.9 but has only managed to score 14 actual goals.
In terms of defense, Nashville SC has conceded the least number of goals (GA) at 5. Their xGA, however, suggests they should have conceded around 9.1 goals, indicating that their defense has been particularly effective. CF Montréal has the weakest defense, conceding 17 goals with a concerning xGA of 15.8.
When considering goal difference (GD), Columbus Crew and New England Revolution share the highest GD at 7 and 8, respectively. However, their xGD tells a slightly different story. Columbus Crew's xGD is 2.8, while New England Revolution's is 2.7. Philadelphia Union has the highest xGD at 4.0, indicating that they might improve their position in the table if they continue to play at their current level.
https://twitter.com/aldocomi/status/1651593894293909504?s=20
RBNY at the top of Field Tilt, GPI and BDP metrics
Field Tilt (FT) measures the territorial dominance of a team. Columbus Crew stands out with the highest FT at 59.8, followed by New York Red Bulls at 57.2. This suggests that both teams have been able to control the game and create scoring opportunities, but they have struggled to convert those chances into goals.
BuildUp Disruption Percentage (BDP) assesses a team's ability to disrupt opponents' buildup play. New York Red Bulls excel in this area with a BDP of 14.1, while Atlanta United lags with a BDP of -2.2, implying that they need to improve their defensive organization and pressing.
Lastly, Gegenpressing Intensity (GPI) measures a team's pressing effectiveness in winning back possession after losing it. New York Red Bulls leads the pack with a GPI of 59.2, while Nashville SC has the lowest GPI at 43.7, hinting that they need to work on their pressing game.
In conclusion, while New England Revolution and FC Cincinnati currently share the top spot, underlying statistics like xPts, xG, and xGA suggest that the table could change in the coming weeks. Teams like Atlanta United, Philadelphia Union, and Columbus Crew show promise in certain areas, and if they can improve their weaknesses, the battle for the top spots in the Eastern Conference will become even more competitive.
Western Conference
The Western Conference table ahead of matchday 10 demonstrates a highly competitive environment, with St. Louis City SC and Seattle Sounders FC sharing the top position at 19 points each. Los Angeles Football Club (LAFC) is trailing just one point behind them at 18 points. The other teams are somewhat further behind, with FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes tying for the fourth position with 14 points each.
St. Louis City SC has overperformed compared to their Expected Points (xPts) by 6.4 points (19 points - 12.6 xPts). In contrast, Sporting Kansas City has underperformed significantly, with only 3 points against their 7.6 xPts.
In terms of offense, St. Louis City SC leads the conference with 21 goals scored (G). However, their Expected Goals (xG) is 13.1, suggesting they have been highly efficient in converting their chances. Maybe too efficient and mean reversion will soon come? We’ll see.
LAFC and Seattle Sounders FC have also demonstrated strong offensive performances, with 16 and 17 goals scored, respectively. LAFC's xG is 14.9, while Seattle Sounders FC's xG stands at an impressive 17.2.
Defensively, LAFC has conceded the least number of goals (GA) at 6, followed closely by Seattle Sounders FC at 7. Their Expected Goals Against (xGA) are 7.6 and 9.5, respectively, which indicates that both teams have been successful in limiting their opponents' chances. At the other end of the spectrum, Real Salt Lake has struggled defensively, conceding 17 goals with an xGA of 14.5.
The goal difference (GD) shows St. Louis City SC and Seattle Sounders FC as the frontrunners, both with a GD of 10. LAFC also has a strong GD of 10. When examining Expected Goal Difference (xGD), Seattle Sounders FC maintains a strong position with an xGD of 7.8, while LAFC has an xGD of 7.4. Vancouver Whitecaps FC has an xGD of 5.5, suggesting they might improve their position in the table if they continue to play at their current level.
https://twitter.com/aldocomi/status/1651622670708899840?s=20
In conclusion, St. Louis City SC, Seattle Sounders FC, and LAFC are currently leading the Western Conference, displaying strong offensive and defensive performances. St. Louis City SC has been particularly impressive in overperforming their xPts, while Seattle Sounders FC and LAFC have been more consistent with their expected outcomes. Vancouver Whitecaps FC has the potential to climb the table based on their xGD, and LA Galaxy needs to work on converting their scoring chances, considering their high FT.
Mid-table teams like FC Dallas, San Jose Earthquakes, and Houston Dynamo FC have room for improvement, particularly in their defensive performances, as indicated by their xGA. Meanwhile, the bottom teams, such as Portland Timbers, Austin FC, and Sporting Kansas City, need to address their offensive and defensive issues to avoid falling further behind in the standings.
Matches I am gonna watch this weekend
New England Revolution - FC Cincinnati
This highly anticipated encounter between two top contenders in the Eastern Conference is set to be a thrilling match. The advanced metrics suggest that there isn't a significant gap between the two teams' performances in the MLS thus far, making it difficult to predict the outcome. FC Cincinnati may have a slight edge on paper, but the home field advantage in Boston could tip the scales in favor of New England Revolution.
Interestingly, the Eastern Conference data reveals that both New England and FC Cincinnati rely the least on xGs from set-pieces among their competitors. New England has generated only 2.4 of their total 13.7 xGs from set-pieces, while FC Cincinnati stands at 2.7 out of 13.9. However, given the unpredictable nature of soccer, it wouldn't be surprising if this match ends up being decided by set-pieces, despite the statistical trends.
https://twitter.com/aldocomi/status/1651338063623143424?s=20
Real Salt Lake - Seattle Sounders
The main reason for my interest in this match is to watch Andres Gómez playing against a strong side. I am really curious to see whether, against Seattle, this 20-year-old Colombian winger would be able to create as much offensive threat and value added as the level so far produced in the league. Is he really a “wonderkid”?
https://twitter.com/aldocomi/status/1652036588744982528?s=20
https://twitter.com/aldocomi/status/1652036590804279322?s=20
Nashville SC - Atlanta United
Both teams exhibit similar expected goals conceded (Nashville's 1.01 and Atlanta's 0.97), indicating comparable defensive performances. Atlanta's higher expected goals per game (1.32) highlights their efficiency in creating chances.
Possession-wise, Atlanta United enjoys an advantage with 55% average possession and an 84.1% pass accuracy, compared to Nashville SC's 45% and 78.1%, respectively. Possession numbers could result pretty high at the end of the match for Atlanta, considering Nashville’s lack of focus on pressing and counterpressing. A caveat though: Thiago Almada might not take part in the match, which could reshuffle the balance of power, including for the team that possesses the ball the most.
Chicago Fire - New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire has collected 10 points from 8 matches, with an xPts of 12.3. They have scored 12 goals and conceded the same amount, resulting in a goal difference of 0. With an xG of 11.5 and xGA of 9.8, the team has a positive xGD of 1.7. Chicago Fire's field tilt stands at 50.4%, with a BuildUp Disruption Percentage (BDP) of 1.3 and a Gegenpressing Intensity (GPI) of 45.6.
On the other hand, New York Red Bulls have accumulated 8 points from 9 matches and have an xPts of 13.7. They have scored 6 goals and conceded 9, yielding a goal difference of -3. Their xG is 10.8, and their xGA is 8.9, resulting in an xGD of 1.9. The Red Bulls have a field tilt of 57.2%, a BDP of 14.1, and a GPI of 59.2.
While Chicago Fire has scored more goals and has a slightly better goal difference, New York Red Bulls have a higher xPts and better xGD. With both teams relatively close in terms of performance metrics, the match is expected to be a tight and competitive affair. The outcome could be determined by which team effectively exploits its strengths and capitalizes on the opponent's weaknesses. Keep an eye on the battle between Chicago Fire's attack and the Red Bulls' pressing game, as it may be the key to unlocking this matchup.