MD14 Preview: Sorry for the absence
Focus on new xPWR table + 14 Match Previews Files to download
Apologies for the recent absence
Over the past few weeks, arguably the busiest since the establishment of Soccerment, I've been engaged in multiple projects. These include initiating a funding round, introducing our new analytics platform ('xvalue.ai/stats'), traveling to Leeds for a meeting with Willy Gnonto, and organizing the third Italian product drop of our wearable tech (‘XSEED’). These activities were time-consuming and occasionally disrupted my sleep. Additionally, I attended the UEFA Champions League (UCL) semifinal between Inter Milan and AC Milan at San Siro Stadium.
This hectic schedule led to a temporary inability to keep up with the Major League Soccer schedule. However, I am now enthusiastically resuming my study of MLS.
xPower Rankings Ahead of Matchday 14 (MD14)
As we approach another eventful week of MLS games, it's essential to scrutinize our latest power rankings and their implications for the league's current standing. The xPWR is calculated based on accumulated points, Expected Points (xPts) per match, the average xPts of competitors, and each team's remaining matches.
The top four positions remain unchanged, with LAFC maintaining their first place in our power rankings, boasting an xPWR of 64.6. This is achieved through earning 22 points in 11 matches, averaging 1.87 xPts per game against teams with an average of 1.35 xPts per game.
LAFC xPWR = 22 x (1 + (1.35 - 1.37)) + 23 x 1.87 = 64.57
FC Cincinnati closely follows with an xPWR of 63.7, a result of their balanced approach between offense (1.58 xG PG) and defense (1.15 xGA PG). We can expect a competitive race for the Supporters Shield between these two teams.
The Seattle Sounders FC, currently ranked third, are another team to keep an eye on, boasting an xPWR of 61.5 and an impressive 1.92 xPts per game. Although their recent results have not been favorable, their overall performance remains solid.
Completing the top five are New England Revolution and Nashville SC, with respective xPWRs of 59.1 and 54.2. The latter has benefited significantly from the exceptional performances of 2022 MVP Hany Mukhtar.
At the lower end of the table, Sporting Kansas City is last with an xPWR of 32.5, reflecting the challenges they've faced early in the season. However, they've recently made remarkable progress, securing wins against Seattle and MNUFC, and a draw against LAFC.
MD14 Previews
You can download all match previews from xvalue.ai/stats below:
RBNY vs. MTL
I predict RBNY will eventually return to the position suggested by my xPWR table. The advanced metrics provided in the downloadable file above illustrate a disparity between results and performances, suggesting a potential return to the mean soon.
MIA vs. ORL
The Florida Derby will feature two teams with similar underlying performances (xG difference of -0.57 for Inter Miami and -0.54 for Orlando). Their table results also align closely, with 15 and 16 points respectively from 12 matches.
PHI vs. NE
Though my xPWR doesn't favor Philadelphia (13th overall), home field advantage in a derby-like scenario could be pivotal. I look forward to watching Noel Buck (18) perform again.
D.C. vs. LA
Tyler Miller, the D.C. goalkeeper, has the highest xT from passes, an outcome of completing a high number of long passes. The teams have gathered a similar number of Expected Points (approximately 16). However, D.C. has exactly 16 points from 13 matches, while LA Galaxy has 9 from 12 matches.
CIN vs. CLB
Columbus's defensive strategy is quite aggressive, often playing high up the pitch (37 meters, 1st in MLS). This might leave them vulnerable to FC Cincinnati’s counter-attacks, which contribute to 9.6% of their total non-penalty xG. Acosta’s 0.52 xOVA P90 provides insight into his quality, with the highest xOVA P90 for Columbus being Yeboah's 0.31.
CLT vs. NSH
Nashville excels at defense (0.94 xG conceded PG) and counterattacking (accounting for 18% of their non-penalty xG). In contrast, Charlotte effectively limits exposure to counterattacks (accounting for 3.2% of their non-penalty xG conceded). Will Hany Mukhtar's inspiration be the game-changer again?
ATX vs. TOR
Both teams are struggling significantly. Toronto will rely heavily on their Italian players, especially Insigne, who has not been performing up to par. Meanwhile, Austin FC cannot count on Driussi and hopes Rigoni's good streak continues.
CHI vs. ATL
Gutierrez (19) boasts better advanced metrics than DP Shaqiri, presenting both a challenge and opportunity. For Atlanta, Giakoumakis is a constant threat, along with MVP contender Thiago Almada. It will be interesting to see Araujo's performance following his announced transfer to Flamengo.
DAL vs. HOU
Jesus Ferreira’s form has been excellent recently. Furthermore, Houston’s advanced metrics are deteriorating, as evidenced by their xG trends. This sets up an intriguing scenario for a classic MLS surprise.
COL vs. RSL
I don’t find either of these teams particularly compelling. However, Andrés Gómez (20) of RSL, a winger producing 0.36 xOVA per 90 minutes, could be the reason to watch the match.
STL vs. SKC
STL's gap between Goal Difference (+9) and xG Difference (-0.98) appears too wide not to be significantly affected by regression to the mean. Sporting Kansas City, on the other hand, has been achieving good results recently. However, their 0.06 xG per shot is concerning.
LAFC vs. SJ
The upcoming SoCal vs NoCal Derby promises to be an exciting match: LAFC tops my xPWR table (64.6), with SJ ranking 11th at 48.5. Dénis Bouanga of LAFC and Cristian Espinoza of SJ are contenders for the 2023 MVP crown. Bouanga, with 0.50 xOVA per 90 minutes, seems the most likely choice, partially due to stronger team support.
POR vs. MIN
Despite Minnesota’s superior underlying numbers so far, Portland may benefit from Evander’s current form. The 25-year-old Brazilian has already scored four goals and assisted two, including a brace against the Whitecaps last week.
VAN vs. SEA
The “Cascadia” Derby between Vancouver Whitecaps and Seattle Sounders concludes the list. Vancouver, despite displaying strong underlying numbers, has achieved mediocre actual results. The Sounders, on the other hand, recently lost a match they were expected to win, according to advanced metrics.
